AGP Executive Report

US-Iraq Security Transition: The US-led anti-ISIS coalition has started withdrawing from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, with forces now mainly at Erbil airport and due to fully leave by Sept. 30, as Iraqi and Kurdish officials say the mission against IS is largely done. Peshmerga Reform: Kurdistan’s Peshmerga ministry says the long process of unifying Peshmerga forces under one command has been completed, bringing major units from both KDP and PUK under the ministry umbrella. Fuel Protests: Across Iraq, protests over fuel prices, diesel costs and unpaid dues spread from Wasit to Karbala and Al-Muthanna, with farmers blocking roads and workers threatening action. Currency Watch: The US dollar closed mixed in Iraq, hovering around 156,000 dinars per $100 in Baghdad and Erbil. Red Sea Shock: Oil prices jumped above $105 a barrel as Houthis seized Mocha, raising fears for shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and adding pressure to an already tense Hormuz situation. Air Defences: Iraq says it has finalized contracts for new air defence systems from the US, South Korea and Turkey, with deliveries expected soon ahead of the Sept. 30 coalition exit.

Oil & Security: Iraq is pushing OPEC+ for a bigger oil output quota as the group weighs a capacity review, while the wider region stays tense after US-Iran tanker attacks and drone strikes that reportedly damaged vessels in Iraqi waters. Militias & Disarmament: Baghdad’s push to bring weapons under state control ahead of Sept. 30 faces resistance from Iran-aligned factions, with talks shifting toward possible “freeze” plans rather than full disarmament. Economy & Trade: Iraq is stepping up EU trade and investment talks and has agreed to form an Iraqi-Armenian business council; it also discussed Egypt land-freight facilitation and a possible “Made in Egypt” expo in Baghdad. Education Crisis: Iraqi schools are heading into the new academic year with textbook shortages after delayed printing contracts and reduced funding, leaving many directorates to rely on reused books. Sports: Iraq is set for the record 10-team U17 Gulf Cup in Qatar, and Iraq’s U20s booked an Asian tennis berth.

Maritime Security: Iraq’s Oil Ministry says a fuel-oil tanker chartered by the state was hit by an unidentified source in Iraqi territorial waters, causing minor hull damage with no casualties or cargo leakage; authorities are investigating and monitoring the vessel after UKMTO reported a separate “unknown projectile” incident near Faw. Kurdistan Budget Talks: Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government met over the draft 2027 federal budget and KRI financial entitlements, including investment and operating funds. Historical Recovery: In Duhok, remains of 10 victims from the 1991 Kurdish mass exodus were found near the Sarzeri border crossing with DNA testing underway. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested three in a Babil bribery and extortion case tied to provincial land approvals, seizing documents and bank cards. Counter-ISIS Ops: Iraqi F-16s carried out four strikes on ISIS hideouts in Wadi Al-Shay, destroying designated targets. Currency Watch: The US dollar edged lower in Baghdad and Erbil, trading around 156,000 IQD per $100.

US-Iran Tensions: The US says it struck five IRGC-linked crude oil tankers after Iran tried to hit a US warship with ballistic missiles; CENTCOM reports no US injuries and describes the ships as part of an IRGC “shadow network.” Gulf Security & Militias: AP reports Iran-backed fighters in Yemen and Iraq are coordinating to threaten Gulf states, with Houthis helping plan an attack on Saudi oil facilities and Iraqi militias refusing disarmament. Oil Markets: Brent is near $100 a barrel as Middle East shipping risks rise, but alternative routes, extra supply and weaker demand are keeping prices from crossing the line. Iraq Energy Push: Iraq’s oil conference in Baghdad highlights export, refining and pipeline priorities, including an Iraq-Turkey northern route push and work tied to major partners. Business & Finance: Iraq approved eight insurance firms for trading on its OTC platform, while the CBI moves to support currency and deposit stability. Humanitarian/Weapons: A new global report says cluster munitions killed and injured at least 1,063 people in 2025, with Iraq among the affected countries.

Media Crackdown: Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission suspended Sawt Al-Shaab on Iraq Al-Hadath for 90 days and barred presenter Marwa Hashem from appearances over alleged broadcasting rule violations, while the channel’s owner Bilal Al-Maliki was detained in Iran at Iraq’s request. Shiite Politics: A dispute over proposed deputy prime minister posts has exposed tensions inside the Shiite Coordination Framework, with talks also continuing—slowly—on bringing weapons under state control. Sovereignty vs. Arms: Armed factions say weapons can only be exchanged for full sovereignty, making Sept. 30 a key test for the US-led coalition’s commitments. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested a Tikrit municipality property official over an alleged land-allocation scheme, seizing deeds and cash, as more cases hit state institutions. Economy & Daily Life: The US dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil to around 156,000 IQD per $100, while Iraq’s job market faces AI-driven shifts that hit new graduates hardest. Kurdistan Environment: Rising fuel prices and weak electricity are pushing renewed tree-cutting risks in the KRI as winter nears.

SAS in the fight against ISIS: Britain’s SAS played a key role in Operation Shader, helping coalition forces with intelligence, surveillance and targeting support across Iraq and Syria, including covert work around Al-Tanf and former ISIS strongholds. Iraq’s customs push: Iraq expects customs revenues to hit 4 trillion dinars by year-end, crediting the ASYCUDA system for faster, more transparent processing and plans to extend it to Kurdistan border crossings. CBI crackdown on forex firms: The Central Bank of Iraq revoked licences of three exchange companies over falsified cash-sale records, ordering refunds or rate-differential payments. Investor warning: The Iraq Securities Commission cautioned the public against unlicensed entities promising high, fast returns or asking for transfers to personal accounts. Regional pressure on shipping: Iran says it will set an “exclusion zone” near the Strait of Hormuz, threatening sanctions for vessels entering the area, as shipping traffic drops to the lowest levels since May. Business and trade: Ford named a new Iraq distributor partner, while Iraq and Palestine discussed easing pharmaceutical registration to expand market access.

Armed Factions & State Control: A planned Coordination Framework meeting with armed factions on bringing weapons under state control was postponed after Al-Nujaba’s absence, with talks now likely to shift after the Sept. 30 US coalition withdrawal deadline. Kirkuk Oil Governance: Kurdish MPs in Kirkuk urged Iraq’s oil ministry to intervene over alleged unfair management at the state-run North Oil Company, warning they may pursue legal and parliamentary oversight. Anti-Drug Crackdown: Iraq’s narcotics authorities in Erbil arrested two suspects and seized 4 kg of crystal meth, while Al-Anbar’s criminal court sentenced a drug trafficker to death over amphetamine possession. Currency Watch: The US dollar dipped in Baghdad and Erbil, trading around 155,500 dinars per $100. Trade Update: India’s exports to Iraq fell sharply in Q2 2026, dropping about 42% to $317 million, with cereals and meat leading. Regional Security & Energy: Iran said an Iran-Oman “temporary safe passage” for Strait of Hormuz shipping is nearing UN registration, as OPEC+ kept October quotas steady amid disruption fears.

Oil & Energy: OPEC+ kept October oil output quotas unchanged from September after a virtual meeting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, aiming to stabilize markets amid West Asia uncertainty. Iraq’s Exports: Iraq said it has already pushed crude export capacity above 3 million bpd and is targeting 5 million bpd through new pipeline routes linking Basra-Haditha-Fishkhabur and Haditha-Banias to Mediterranean outlets, reducing reliance on Strait of Hormuz shipments. Security & Sovereignty: Iraq’s government says the U.S. withdrawal of defense systems and remaining troops is set to complete by late September as the coalition mission ends by Sept. 30, with Baghdad stressing full sovereignty from Oct. 1. Local Development: Iraq announced plans for modern cities in every province, funded via investment loans and land allocation, with provincial commissions to submit project visions quickly. Culture & Heritage: The 27th Baghdad International Book Fair opened with record participation from 28 countries, while restoration work continues on the 3,400-year-old Aqarquf ziggurat west of Baghdad with an Italian archaeological team.

US-Iraq/Kurdistan Withdrawal: Iraq’s national security adviser Qasim al-Araji says coalition forces will fully withdraw by Sept. 30, including remaining defense systems in Erbil, with phased removal already under way. Security Talks: Federal and Kurdistan officials met to tighten border control and boost intelligence-sharing against smuggling and infiltration. PMF Law Moves: Iraq’s government plans to send PMF-related draft legislation to parliament in the coming weeks, including restructuring and service/retirement bills. Banking Shock in Baghdad: Al-Taif Islamic Bank says it will soon return depositors’ funds after a Central Bank committee took over management; depositors had protested frozen services. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ kept October production levels unchanged at September’s targets, as Hormuz disruption and the Iran war continue to cloud supply. Currency: The US dollar rose in Baghdad while staying steadier in Erbil. Sports: Iraq’s U20s booked a spot in the 2027 AFC U-20 Asian Cup finals after beating Thailand 3-1.

US-Iran Escalation: The US struck three Iran-linked oil tankers after Tehran targeted US warships, with Washington warning of further action if ships are attacked, as the region’s shipping risk keeps rising. Oil Route Shift: Iraq says crude exports have hit about 3 million bpd and could reach 5 million via new pipeline routes toward Fishkhabur and Syria’s Banias, aiming to cut reliance on Hormuz. Fuel Pressure at Home: Gasoline shortages are driving long queues in Baghdad as regional conflict disrupts imports, despite Iraq’s large oil output. Kirkuk Security: A leadership change is expected at Kirkuk Operations Command, underscoring the province’s political and security sensitivity. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested five staff over alleged violations in Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital renovations in Al-Muthanna, including stalled work and cost discrepancies. Trade & Transport Deals: Iraq unveiled three ESCWA initiatives for transport resilience, and moved toward a maritime cooperation MoU with Lebanon, while Iraq and India chambers signed a trade cooperation agreement. Regional Economy: Iraq says it completed an investigation into about 5,700 ISIS detainees transferred from Syria, with cases set to proceed to trial. Agriculture Win: Iraq announced self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for the 2026 season, citing new seed varieties and long-term irrigation support. KRG Infrastructure: The Korre-Shaqlawa-Qandil road in Kurdistan is 70% complete, with an October opening planned.

Fuel Crisis Watch: Iraq’s Oil Ministry denied it will start exporting gasoline immediately, saying a new FCC unit is meant first for domestic self-sufficiency as regional tensions keep tanker shipments delayed and drivers queue for fuel in Baghdad and beyond. Oil Market Shock: TankerTrackers says Iraq’s oil exports fell 36% in August versus pre-war levels, with shipments hit hard as the US-Iran fight disrupts Gulf routes. Banking Stability: The Central Bank of Iraq reassured depositors after placing Al-Taif Islamic Bank under guardianship, stressing liquidity and deposit insurance coverage amid wider integrity probes into state banks. Anti-Corruption Drive: Authorities arrested Ghassan al-Jumaili, head of training at the Baiji Oil Institute, in a corruption case linked to the wider “Dawn Crackdown,” while PM Ali al-Zaidi and Nouri al-Maliki reiterated support for reforms. Housing Push: Iraq will open online registration in October for the Watan initiative, offering one million free residential plots with infrastructure to eligible families. Heritage Protection: Najaf registered 196 heritage buildings under preservation law, requiring approvals for any restoration. Regional Security: Turkey began repatriating 184 Turkish ISIL-linked detainees from Iraq, with the first group arriving in Ankara.

Iraq Oil & Economy: Iraq reported about $4.5 billion in preliminary revenues from August crude exports (around 70 million barrels, averaging 2 million bpd), citing improved logistics and pricing to pull volumes back after earlier bottlenecks. Energy Security: With the Strait of Hormuz still a pressure point, Iraq also boosted exports via Hormuz—one report puts August flows at about 60% of pre-war levels as shipments recover. Fuel Crisis Response: Iraq’s Oil Minister said a gasoline shortage is being handled through a crisis-cell meeting, warning demand can jump sharply during public concern and saying shipments are due soon. Transport & Environment: Baghdad’s “Green Taxi” plan is moving ahead, aiming to roll out electric taxis and charging infrastructure as gasoline shortages bite. Local Governance & Services: Karbala warned it needs 350 new schools as budget delays stall projects and leave contractors owed large sums. Security & Crime: Iraqi forces arrested two suspected illegal arms traders in Dujail, seizing weapons and night-vision gear; INIS also dismantled a 10-member kidnapping-for-ransom ring targeting foreign workers in Baghdad. Kurdistan Labor: A Social Dialogue Forum was launched in the Kurdistan Region to shape labor policy through tripartite talks among government, workers, and employers.

Drug Crackdown: Iraq’s Interior Ministry says it dismantled an international drug network in Sulaimani, seizing 260 kg of captagon and arresting two suspects, including a foreign national, after a four-month investigation. Press Freedom: Journalists in Baghdad report security forces confiscated press badges and blocked coverage of fuel shortages, despite Interior Ministry notices since 2015 saying the old Baghdad Operations Command permit is no longer required. Fuel Crisis: The Oil Ministry blames renewed queues on a production-versus-consumption gap and delayed tanker arrivals, saying refineries run at full capacity and urging people not to stockpile. Land & Housing: Security forces arrested a man in Al-Zafaraniya over illegal subdivision and sale of state farmland, while Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi pushes new city and plot plans to tackle a housing shortfall. Anti-Corruption: A court sentenced former MP Talal Al-Zobaie to seven years and ordered repayment and asset confiscation over illicit enrichment. Regional Trade: Iraq and Syria held talks to boost exports, including cement and bitumen, as border crossings reopen.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. is investigating reports that an airstrike hit a wedding in Iran, with Vice President JD Vance saying Washington is “extremely sceptical” of Iranian claims while funerals are held for victims. Regional Fallout: Iran says it struck U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE with missiles and drones, as Kuwait reports intercepting an attack and the UAE denies a reported strike. Iraq’s Stakes: Iraq’s economy faces pressure if weapons control and state control of Iran-backed armed groups miss the Sept. 30 deadline, with lawmakers warning sanctions could disrupt salaries and oil exports. Security & Justice: Iraq’s National Intelligence Service repatriated a suspect accused in the 2014 Camp Speicher massacre from Germany, while Kirkuk customs employees were detained under judicial orders. State Oversight: A parliamentary warning highlights how weak weapons control could invite tougher international action and wider economic strain.

Weapons Under State Control: Iraq’s Shiite Coordination Framework and armed factions are holding talks via a committee including al-Sudani, Nouri al-Maliki and Badr’s Hadi al-Amiri, aiming to bring weapons under state authority before the Sept. 30 end of the US-led coalition mission. Oil & Investment Push: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered preparations for an international Baghdad oil conference to attract major companies and boost output, flaring cuts and exports. Currency Glitch in Kirkuk: Small banknote shortages are disrupting daily market change, with torn and worn notes increasingly rejected. Drug Crackdown in Sulaimani: Security forces arrested a trafficker and seized psilocybin mushrooms and marijuana in a coordinated anti-narcotics operation. Regional Diplomacy: Iraq’s FM Fuad Hussein received US Chargé d’Affaires Steven Fagin in Baghdad as the US mission leadership changes. Economy Watch: Brazil’s exports to Iraq fell sharply in Q2, led by sugar and meat products. Security Incident: A PMF member was killed and another wounded in a terrorist attack at a checkpoint in Kirkuk.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded their biggest blows since July, with Washington striking Iranian air defenses, radar, maritime assets and mine-laying capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US bases and assets across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Wedding Strike Fallout: Iran says a US missile hit a wedding in Kuhestak, Sirik County, killing at least four (including a child) and wounding dozens; the UN chief urged an immediate halt as the death toll Iran reported rose to 18 killed and 108 wounded. Trump’s Warning: President Trump said the next strike could come “any time we want,” while Iran vowed a “new strategy” and threatened “punitive measures,” including conditioning Hormuz passage on compensation. Iraq Security: Iraqi forces seized 160,000 Captagon pills, freed a kidnapped engineer in Basra, and arrested suspects, while Najaf police registered firearms and detained wanted people. Energy Watch: Iraq’s oil exports rebounded in August to about 2.34 million bpd as Hormuz traffic eased, with buyers in China and India benefiting from wider tanker approvals. Al-Maliki on Weapons: Nouri al-Maliki said Iraq is moving toward “regulating and containing” weapons rather than disarming factions, with a committee to sort heavy, medium and light arms.